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Illustration: two Starship vehicles docked tail to tail in low Earth orbit, transferring liquid oxygen and methane, with tanker ships on a dashed orbit and Earth's horizon below. A gas station in orbit. 50% · Resolves 2027-06-30 Illustration: a completed orbit drawn in cyan with a small satellite on it, and a second Vikram-1 rocket climbing from Earth's horizon on a dashed magenta path to join it. Vikram-1, again. 35% · Resolves 2026-12-31 Illustration: a New Glenn rocket standing on a rebuilt launch pad beside a lattice tower and crane, with a lightning mast and a dashed trajectory curving away above it. New Glenn's way back. 20% · Resolves 2026-12-31

One chart at a time on the money and policy behind space, defense, energy and manufacturing.

Each issue in your inbox the morning it publishes, a note the day a forecast is graded, and occasional Reckoning news. Free, in English and Spanish. No list sharing, unsubscribe in one click. Privacy.

Bar chart of operational surveillance and weather satellites, AEI count: the US went from 298 in 2018 to 643 today, China from 141 to 541. China's ISR fleet by three counts: AEI surveillance only 453; DIA ISR including Chinese commercial, July 2026, 510 or more; AEI surveillance plus weather 541.

24 · China “Tripled.” It Depends What You Count

The DIA says China has tripled its ISR fleet since 2018. AEI's count shows China's pace leveling off, while the US now adds satellites faster.

27 Oct 2026

SourcesDIA, 2026 Challenges to Space Security (Oct 2026); AEI Space Data Navigator, per Todd Harrison, Breaking Defense (27 Oct 2026). The DIA count includes PRC state and commercial satellites; definitions differ.

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Bar chart of US semiconductor imports, January to August: $49.2B in 2025, $90.5B in 2026. The August chip trade balance went from a $0.4B surplus in 2025 to a $7.6B deficit in 2026.

17 · The AI Build-Out Runs on Imported Chips

US chip imports nearly doubled in a year, and a small August surplus became a $7.6B deficit.

10 Oct 2026

SourcesUS Bureau of Economic Analysis trade data, as reported by Yahoo Finance (10 Oct 2026). August 2026: imports $15.4B, exports $7.8B. Nominal dollars.

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Two bars of cement use: China used 6.6 gigatonnes in 2011 to 2013; the US used 4.5 gigatonnes from 1901 to 2000.

15 · Three Years vs. One Hundred

China used more cement in three years than the US did in the entire 20th century.

10 Oct 2026

SourcesGates Notes (Jun 2014), citing Vaclav Smil, Making the Modern World, and USGS data.

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Crude steel production in 2025: China 961 million tonnes, 52% of world output; United States 82 million tonnes.

14 · Who Makes the World's Steel

China made nearly 12 times as much steel as the US in 2025, and more than every other country combined.

10 Oct 2026

Sourcesworldsteel, December 2025 crude steel production (23 Jan 2026). World 1,849.4 Mt; China 960.8 Mt (52%); US 82.0 Mt.

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Line chart of electricity, 2000 to 2025: China rose from 1,347 to 10,573 terawatt-hours; the US went from 3,802 to 4,430.

13 · China Built the Power. The US Held Steady.

China's electricity use grew 7.8 times from 2000 to 2025; US generation grew 17%.

10 Oct 2026

SourcesChina: Ember, Global Electricity Review 2025 and 2026 (demand, TWh). US: EIA Monthly Energy Review Table 7.3 (net generation). China figures are demand; US figures are generation.

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Share of global shipbuilding by tonnage: China 56%, United States 0.1%. One Chinese shipbuilder built more commercial tonnage in 2024 than all US yards have since World War II.

12 · Who Builds the World's Ships

China builds 56% of the world's ships by tonnage; the US builds 0.1%.

10 Oct 2026

SourcesChina: MIIT via China Daily (4 Feb 2026), 53.69M DWT, 56.1% of world. US: CSIS, Ship Wrecked (Mar 2025), 0.1%, including the callout. China was under 5% in 1999 (USTR, Jan 2025).

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Bar chart of US machine tool orders in billions: 2018 $5.5, 2019 $4.5, 2020 $3.8, 2021 $5.9, 2022 $5.6, 2023 $4.9, 2024 $4.7, 2025 $5.7.

11 · Factories Are Buying Machines Again

US machine tool orders rose 22.5% in 2025, and aerospace orders rose 45%.

10 Oct 2026

SourcesAMT, U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO), year-end releases 2018–2025. Nominal dollars. 2018, 2019 and 2024 rounded in source.

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Bar chart of cost estimates for the GPS Next Generation Operational Control System: $3.7B in 2012, $4.3B in 2015, $6.2B in 2018, $7.7B in 2025, with $6.27B spent by 2026. A timeline below shows the promised ready date slipping from June 2017 to July 2025, and cancellation on 17 April 2026.

10 · Sixteen Years, $6.27B, Cancelled

The GPS ground control system's ready date slipped eight years, and it was cancelled in April 2026 before entering operations.

9 Oct 2026

SourcesAward: Raytheon release (26 Feb 2010). Estimates: Defense News (2019, 2023), Air & Space Forces (16 Jul 2025). Dates: Inside GNSS (2017), Defense News (2019), DOT&E via Breaking Defense (Feb 2024). Cancellation and $6.27B: Air Force Public Affairs (20 Apr 2026). Original date cited as 2016 or June 2017.

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Bar chart of DoD other transaction obligations by fiscal year, in billions: FY15 0.62, FY16 1.4, FY17 2.2, FY18 3.9, FY19 7.4, FY20 16.3 from DoD data; then FY21 16.8, FY22 11.8, FY23 16.2, FY24 18.2 from GAO, each split into prototype and a smaller follow-on production share.

09 · Following the Pentagon's Fast Money

DoD other transaction obligations rose from $0.6B in FY2015 to $18B in FY2024; only $2B of FY2024 paid for follow-on production.

9 Oct 2026

SourcesFY15–20: DoD Defense Pricing & Contracting, Year in Review 2020 (FY20 includes ~$7.7B COVID-related, per press). FY21–24: GAO-25-107546 (3 Sep 2025), Table 2, excludes research OTs. Series are not directly comparable. No FY25–26 total published.

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U.S. solid rocket motor makers fell from 6 in 1995 to 2 in 2017. Beside it, annual production rates now or planned: GMLRS 14,000 against 19,002 sought, 5,002 short; Javelin 2,400 to 3,960, up 65%; PAC-3 MSE 600 to 650, up 8%.

08 · More Missiles, Fewer Motor Makers

Planned output of three motor-dependent munitions is climbing, against a solid rocket motor base that had shrunk from six makers to two by 2017.

9 Oct 2026

SourcesGAO-18-45 (26 Oct 2017): manufacturers fell from six to two since 1995. Lockheed Martin (7 Oct 2025): Javelin 2,400 to 3,960 by late 2026; GMLRS ramping to 14,000; PAC-3 MSE 600+ to 650. Defense News (18 Aug 2026): Army seeks 19,002 GMLRS a year, 2028–2034.

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Bar chart of NGC2 and network funding in the Army's FY2027 request by layer: applications $488M, data $306M, infrastructure $1.36B, transport $1.36B; software layers $794M, hardware layers $2.72B. Awards so far: $99.6M and $26M in 2025, $162.8M and $93.6M in October 2026.

07 · Following the Army's Command Network

Most of the Army's FY2027 command-network money is hardware; software, where new entrants are winning, is $794M of it.

9 Oct 2026

SourcesFY2027 Army budget materials as reported by Breaking Defense (Apr 2026). Layers sum to $3.51B of a $3.78B NGC2 and network line; gap unexplained in source. Awards: army.mil (18 Jul, 2 Sep 2025), DefenseScoop (6 Oct 2026), Defense Daily (7 Oct 2026; other outlets say ~$100M).

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Timeline of six kinds of capital for a hard-tech company, from venture equity for unproven risk, through government prototype money, debt, customer money and its own balance sheet, to venture again for scale.

06 · Each Stage Gets the Capital It Needs

Venture equity pays for the first stage and the last; cheaper money should carry everything in between.

9 Oct 2026

SourcesIllustrative framework, not data. Examples: Furientis founder's note (6 Oct 2026), X-Bow via Seapower (7 Oct 2026), Anduril release (6 Oct 2026), SendCutSend release (19 May 2026), Jim Belosic at SF Tech Week (7 Oct 2026).

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13 forecasts in the Reckoning register, 2 graded. Forecast 022 was given 25% and resolved true, Brier 0.56. Forecast 023 was given 55% and resolved true, Brier 0.20. Mean Brier 0.38.

05 · Scoring My Own Forecasts

13 forecasts logged; 2 graded, both resolved true; mean Brier score 0.38.

9 Oct 2026

SourcesReckoning forecast register. Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.

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Bar chart of FY2022 DoD SBIR and STTR awards: Phase I $186M across 1,172 awards, Phase II $1.71B across 1,334 awards, Phase III not tracked.

04 · Following DoD SBIR to Phase III

DoD put $1.9B into new Phase I and II awards in FY2022; its award data can't show how many reached Phase III.

9 Oct 2026

SourcesNational Academies, Review of the SBIR and STTR Programs at the Department of Defense (2026), ch. 3. Link: https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/29329/chapter/5

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Waffle chart of the $17.9B Golden Dome FY2027 request: 98 of 100 squares are reconciliation funding ($17.5B), 2 are regular appropriations ($0.4B).

03 · Following $100 of Golden Dome

$97.80 of every $100 in the FY2027 request depends on a reconciliation bill.

8 Oct 2026

SourcesCRS R49023 Table A-1; DoW FY2027 budget overview p. 1-4.

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Bar chart of NASA spending on Space Reactor-1 Freedom: FY26 $640M, FY27 $890M, FY28 $415M, FY29 $180M.

02 · Following the $2.1B Nuclear Spacecraft

NASA's planned SR-1 Freedom spending peaks at $890M in FY2027, a year before its 2028 launch.

8 Oct 2026

SourcesNASA cost profile as reported by POLITICO via Payload (23 Jul 2026); NASA release 26-084.

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Flow diagram of the $71.2B Space Force FY2027 request by funding source and account. Reconciliation to procurement is $13.20 of every $100.

01 · Following $100 of the Space Force Budget

Half of Space Force procurement, $9.4B of $19.1B, depends on a reconciliation bill.

8 Oct 2026

SourcesDoW Comptroller FY2027 R-1, P-1, O-1 and M-1 exhibits.

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Each issue in your inbox the morning it publishes, a note the day a forecast is graded, and occasional Reckoning news. Free, in English and Spanish. No list sharing, unsubscribe in one click. Privacy.

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