I invest in these sectors. The disclosure block sits at the very top of every issue, before any analysis, in both editions, never deferred to the end.

Some positions are held through vehicles whose terms bar naming them. Those are not disclosed. What is disclosed is that they exist, how many, and whether any sits in a company the issue discusses. Where one sits in a company an issue would otherwise forecast, no forecast is published and the recusal is stated by name.

Each issue publishes a SHA-256 commitment over the private position record. The hash reveals nothing; it fixes the record at publication, so it can be produced later and checked against what was published.

Positions in covered companies

As of the positions record's version date, rendered from the sealed file with every issue.

• Public. SpaceX (SPCX) · NVIDIA (NVDA) · Tesla (TSLA) · Palantir (PLTR)
• 3 private positions, held through vehicles whose terms bar naming the company — recused

Sealed record: sha256 fc5792fdae164aadbd7280cacf15d828808eb91fe2b593f426bcc1ec2025a593 · positions record version 2026-10-09

A position marked recused gets no forecast; the issue that covers it says so.

Disclosures on register entries

Shown on the entry itself and repeated here.

• 2026-09-020 · Radiant's Kaleidos goes zero-power critical by Sep 30
  Disclosure: I hold a position in a Radiant competitor.
• 2026-09-021 · Radiant finishes all five DOME test phases in 2026
  Disclosure: I hold a position in a Radiant competitor.
• 2026-09-022 · Starship lifts off with operational Starlink V3s by Sep 30
  Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
• 2026-09-023 · Starship deploys operational Starlink V3s in orbit by Oct 31
  Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
• 2026-10-035 · New Glenn flies again by Dec 31, 2026
  Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
• 2026-10-036 · New Glenn flies again by Mar 31, 2027
  Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
• 2026-10-038 · First Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer by Jun 30, 2027
  Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
• 2026-10-039 · OSC lends to a second launch company by Oct 31, 2027
  Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
• 2026-10-040 · Tesla reports 1 million Optimus robots deployed by end-2031
  Disclosure: I hold Tesla.
• 2026-10-041 · Big Iron attempts orbit by Dec 31, 2028
  Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.

Recusal rules

1. Forecast systems and public companies, not private ones. Cost curves, cadence, regulation, government programmes, market structure, and public-company disclosures. A private company appears in an entry only through a milestone it has publicly stated itself — a probability on the company's own claim, never on its business. 2. Recusal, published: no company-specific forecast where I hold a restricted position, am seeking allocation, or am an LP in a fund that holds the company. The issue says "no forecast on X in this issue" without naming why. From 15 September 2026 the same applies to a commitment to any syndicate, SPV, or fund vehicle in which the company is a portfolio company or target, from the date of commitment, whether or not the vehicle closes. 3. Forecast, never verdict. Every entry carries a falsifier and a "what would change my mind." Whenever a company is named in an entry, the operator's-note box is offered to it before publication.

An interest in a fund that holds a covered company is an indirect position and is disclosed as indirect exposure through a fund interest.

How the research is made

Anthropic is a customer of companies covered here, and its models are used to produce the research. Probabilities are set by me, by hand, and never by a model. How an issue is written and sourced is on the about page.

Ninety-day intent

Stated at the top of every issue from W1, 15 October 2026: any intent to take or exit a position in a company that issue names, or "none".