Grade · 2026-09-022

Resolved true.

2026-09-022 · logged 2026-09-21 · Space

Starship lifts off with operational Starlink V3s by Sep 30

Resolved true · Brier 0.56Resolves 2026-09-30
Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
Claim, falsifier, and reasoning
ClaimA Starship flight carrying Starlink V3 satellites intended for operational use lifts off on or before September 30, 2026.
FalsifierNo liftoff of a Starship carrying Starlink V3 satellites by Sep 30, 2026 (UTC). A flight without V3 satellites, or a scrub without liftoff, resolves false.
Reference classStarship launch dates publicly stated by Elon Musk or SpaceX within ~7 days of the target, 2023–2026; adjusted for the booster already rolled to the pad.
Outcome
Resolved true · graded 2026-10-08 by Kevin Neuburger
Brier
(p − outcome)² = (0.25 − 1)² = 0.5625
Observation
Resolved YES on 2026-09-28: IFT-14 launched 7:48 a.m. CT and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites.
Evidence
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starship-achieves-orbit-for-the-first-time/
Note
IFT-14 launched 7:48 a.m. CT and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites. Source: https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starship-achieves-orbit-for-the-first-time/ Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
Record
The claim line above is byte-identical to the one logged on 2026-09-21; the grade is a separate line in grades.jsonl. Neither is ever edited. Register file