Grade · 2026-09-023

Resolved true.

2026-09-023 · logged 2026-09-21 · Space

Starship deploys operational Starlink V3s in orbit by Oct 31

Resolved true · Brier 0.20Resolves 2026-10-31
Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
Claim, falsifier, and reasoning
ClaimA Starship flight reaches orbit and deploys Starlink V3 satellites intended for operational use on or before October 31, 2026.
FalsifierNo confirmed orbital insertion and deployment of operational Starlink V3 satellites from Starship by Oct 31, 2026. Suborbital flights, mass simulators, and non-operational test satellites do not count.
Reference classStarship flight outcomes 2023–2026 and first-of-type operational payload deployments; adjusted for a stated near-term launch target.
Outcome
Resolved true · graded 2026-10-08 by Kevin Neuburger
Brier
(p − outcome)² = (0.55 − 1)² = 0.2025
Observation
Resolved YES early on 2026-09-28, same flight: IFT-14 launched 7:48 a.m. CT and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites.
Evidence
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starship-achieves-orbit-for-the-first-time/
Note
Graded early (2026-10-08): resolved YES on 2026-09-28, same flight. IFT-14 launched 7:48 a.m. CT and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites. Source: https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starship-achieves-orbit-for-the-first-time/ Disclosure: I hold SpaceX.
Record
The claim line above is byte-identical to the one logged on 2026-09-21; the grade is a separate line in grades.jsonl. Neither is ever edited. Register file