Sources
The line behind every figure in W2.
Every figure in this issue traces to a line here, with publisher, publication date where available, and the date I accessed it. All access dates are 2026-09-13 unless stated. Derived figures (shares, sums, the investable slice, the quarterly splits) are arithmetic on the lines below and the derivation is stated in the Supports column or in the issue.
Where two credible sources disagree, both are listed and the disagreement is stated in the issue rather than averaged away. The three headline totals (M1, M2, M4) are three definitions of the same year and are presented as such.
Company figures marked company-facts were read through the SEC's XBRL company-facts API, which returns the values as tagged in the filing named by accession number on each line; the API URL is the fetched source and the accession is the audited record behind it.
Market definitions
| # | Source | Publisher | Pub date | Supports | Archived |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Global Space Economy Reaches $626 Billion, Marking a New Phase of Growth | Novaspace, Space Economy Report 2026 (12th ed.), press release | 2026-01-29 | Global space economy $626.4B for 2025; $1.01T by 2034 (5.5% CAGR); "space market" (activities directly tied to space infrastructure) $236B in 2025, $323B by 2034 — the remaining $390B is space-enabled solutions such as PNT; government space spending $138B; private investment $9B; defense and sovereignty named as the dominant driver. Analyst estimate | 2026-10-27 |
| M2 | The State of the Global Space Economy — 2026 Analysis of Commercial and Government Space | Space Foundation, Global Space Economy Report (PDF, 69 pp.) | 2026-07 (released at the 2026-07-21 event, M3) | Global space economy $686B for 2025, +12%; commercial $544.3B (79%), up 13% from a revised $481.5B in 2024; government budgets "nearly $141 billion", +7.4%, of which US $78.3B (57%); PNT plus ground stations and equipment $419.8B; satellite-enabled products and services $385.9B (70.9% of commercial), up from $345.5B; PNT services $279.9B, largest source, smartphone navigation and mapping the largest part; commercial infrastructure and support industries $158.3B (29.1%); ground stations and equipment $139.8B; GNSS device sales $103.6B (citing EUSPA), ~85% consumer electronics; DTH television $66.4B, −8.2% from $72.4B (citing SIA); SiriusXM $6.4B, −2.1%. Analyst estimate | 2026-09-14 |
| M3 | Space Foundation to Release Global Space Economy Number | Space Foundation, press release | 2026-07-14 | Dates M2: the annual number was released at an online event on 2026-07-21 | 2026-10-27 |
| M4 | Affordability and Productivity Drive Historic Satellite Industry Growth: SIA Releases the 29th Annual State of the Satellite Industry Report | Satellite Industry Association, press release; report prepared by BryceTech | 2026-05-13 | Global space economy $429B for 2025, +3%; commercial satellite industry $303B (71%), +4%; satellite services $105.0B; ground equipment $165.2B, +6%; satellite manufacturing $20.4B; launch industry $12.4B, +33%; 296 commercially procured launches of 325 orbital; 4,434 satellites deployed; 14,266 operational at year-end; US firms 83% of commercially procured satellites, 63% of launches, 59% of commercially procured launch revenue. Analyst estimate | 2026-10-27 |
| M5 | 2025 Global Satellite Industry Revenues — one-page executive summary (SSIR 2026) | Satellite Industry Association / BryceTech (PDF, single image page; read visually) | 2026-05 | Sub-splits inside M4: satellite services consumer $80.2B (satellite TV DBS/DTH, satellite radio DARS, satellite end-user broadband), enterprise $21.1B (transponder agreements, managed services over FSS, mobile voice and data over MSS), remote sensing $3.6B; ground equipment consumer equipment $20.3B (dishes etc.), GNSS equipment $125.8B (devices/chipsets), network equipment $19.1B (VSATs, gateways); non-satellite industry (government space budgets and commercial human spaceflight) $125.7B; space sustainability $500M. Shares in the issue's table are these figures over $429B | 2026-09-14 |
Filings
| # | Source | Publisher | Pub date | Supports | Archived |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | SpaceX Form 424B4 | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. via SEC EDGAR (W1 source D2; re-read 2026-09-13, 12 MB, via curl) | 2026-06-12 | Revenue by segment FY2025/2024/2023: Space $4,086M / $3,796M / $3,557M (Launch Services $2,576M; Launch & Development $1,510M in 2025); Connectivity $11,387M / $7,599M / $3,869M (Consumer $7,208M, Enterprise & Government $4,179M in 2025); AI $3,201M; total $18,674M. Connectivity segment income from operations $4,423M (2025), $2,006M (2024); Segment Adj. EBITDA $7,168M; growth 49.8%. Space segment income (loss) from operations $(657)M (2025), $21M (2024), $(1)M (2023); launches 170 (2025), 138, 98; Q1 2026 Space $(662)M. Q1 2026 Connectivity revenue $3,257M, income from operations $1,188M; Q1 2025 Segment Adj. EBITDA $1,618M. Starlink subscribers 8.9M (2025), 4.4M (2024), 2.3M (2023), 10.3M (Q1 2026), 5.0M (Q1 2025); ARPU $99 (2023), $91, $81, $66 (Q1 2026), $86 (Q1 2025); consumer ARPU −22.9% y/y in Q1 2026 attributed to international expansion and lower-priced plans; consumer subscribers over 60% of Connectivity revenue in 2025; Starlink Mobile revenue via MNO revenue sharing. Net loss $(4,937)M (2025). AI segment nameplate compute draw 0.8 GW (2025), 0.3 GW (2024), 1 GW (Q1 2026). EchoStar: agreements in 2025 to acquire 65 MHz of US spectrum plus MSS licences for $19.6B ($11.1B equity at $42.40/share plus up to $8.5B debt payoff), closing expected November 2027. Antonio Gracias (Valor) on the board since October 2010. Company filing, audited except Q1 2026 (unaudited) | 2026-10-27 |
| F2 | SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1) | SpaceX via SEC EDGAR (Form 8-K exhibit) | 2026-08-04 | Q2 2026 total revenue $7,814M vs $4,071M (+92%); Connectivity $4,291M vs $2,588M (+66%); consumer $2,485M, enterprise and government $1,806M; operating income by segment: Connectivity $1,656M, Space $(542)M, AI $(1,257)M — Connectivity the only segment in profit; subscribers 12.0M; ARPU $66/month, unchanged from Q1; H1 2026 total $12,508M, Connectivity $7,548M; net loss $541M; no FY2026 guidance. Derived in the issue: Q1 2026 enterprise and government = $2,915M − $1,806M = $1,109M (H1 split from F3), so +63% q/q; Q1 2026 consumer = $4,633M − $2,485M = $2,148M; Q2 q/q segment growth = $4,291M / $3,257M − 1 = +32%; run rate $4,291M × 4 = $17,164M; consumer at 13M subscribers × $66 × 3 ≈ $2.6B. Company figures, unaudited | 2026-10-27 |
| F3 | SpaceX Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 | SpaceX via SEC EDGAR (W1 source D3; re-read 2026-09-13) | 2026-08-04 | Segment revenue, three and six months to 30 June: Connectivity $4,291M / $2,588M and $7,548M / $5,062M; Space $962M / $746M and $1,581M / $1,611M; H1 2026 Connectivity split consumer $4,633M, enterprise and government $2,915M. PP&E gross: Satellites $13,788M (30 Jun 2026), $11,949M (31 Dec 2025). Spectrum Transaction: FCC approval 2026-05-12; Spectrum Transfer Closing (licences into a trust) 2026-05-22; Spectrum Acquisition Closing assumed 2027-11-30, with $827M additional if it slips to 2028-11-30. Cover page: Non-accelerated filer ☒; fiscal year end 31 December. Derived: H2 2025 Connectivity = $11,387M − $5,062M = $6,325M; Q1 2025 = $5,062M − $2,588M = $2,474M | 2026-10-27 |
| F4 | Form 10-K, General Instructions | US Securities and Exchange Commission (PDF) | current form | Instruction A(2): annual reports due 60 days after fiscal year end for large accelerated filers, 75 days for accelerated filers, 90 days "for all other registrants" — with F3's non-accelerated status, the FY2026 10-K is due 2027-03-31; the entry's resolution date adds 30 days | 2026-10-27 |
| F5 | Rocket Lab Corporation Form 10-K, FY2025 | Rocket Lab via SEC EDGAR (W1 source C6; re-read 2026-09-13) | 2026-02-26 | Definitions box: revenue per launch $8.5M and cost per launch $4.8M for FY2025 ($7.8M / $5.7M in 2024; $7.1M / $7.0M in 2023); 21 Electron launches in 2025; revenue $601.8M vs $436.2M. Audited | 2026-10-27 |
| F6 | Rocket Lab — SEC company facts (CIK 1819994) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001819994-26-000013 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-02-26 | Revenue CY2025 $601,799K; ProfitLoss CY2025 $(198,209)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F7 | Viasat — SEC company facts (CIK 797721) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001193125-26-248290 (10-K FY ended 2026-03-31) | 2026-05-29 | Revenue FY to 31 Mar 2026 $4,640,280K; ProfitLoss $3,926K | 2026-09-14 |
| F8 | Globalstar — SEC company facts (CIK 1366868) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001366868-26-000012 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-02-27 | Revenue CY2025 $272,986K; net loss $(8,651)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F9 | Iridium — SEC company facts (CIK 1418819) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001418819-26-000009 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-02-12 | Revenue CY2025 $871,659K; net income $114,372K | 2026-10-27 |
| F10 | Planet Labs — SEC company facts (CIK 1836833) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001193125-26-119957 (10-K FY ended 2026-01-31) | 2026-03-23 | Revenue FY to 31 Jan 2026 $307,727K; net loss available to common $(246,860)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F11 | Karman Holdings — SEC company facts (CIK 2040127) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0002040127-26-000014 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-04-03 | Revenue CY2025 $471,500K; net income $17,366K | 2026-09-14 |
| F12 | Redwire — SEC company facts (CIK 1819810) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001819810-26-000029 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-02-27 | Revenue CY2025 $335,381K; net loss $(226,552)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F13 | Firefly Aerospace — SEC company facts (CIK 1860160) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001193125-26-116309 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-03-20 | Revenue CY2025 $159,855K; net loss $(298,340)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F14 | Intuitive Machines — SEC company facts (CIK 1844452) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001628280-26-019865 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-03-19 | Revenues CY2025 $210,059K (the RevenueFromContractWithCustomer tag reads $207,132K; the Revenues total is used); net loss attributable $(83,294)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F15 | Voyager Technologies — SEC company facts (CIK 1788060) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001628280-26-016543 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-03-10 | Revenue CY2025 $166,419K; net loss attributable $(104,814)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F16 | BlackSky — SEC company facts (CIK 1753539) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001753539-26-000032 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-03-17 | Revenue CY2025 $106,575K (no CY2025 net-income tag returned by the API; not cited) | 2026-09-14 |
| F17 | Spire Global — SEC company facts (CIK 1816017) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001193125-26-116169 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-03-19 | Revenue CY2025 $71,553K (down from $110,451K in 2024; ProfitLoss $51,305K, not cited because the driver was not verified) | 2026-09-14 |
| F18 | AST SpaceMobile — SEC company facts (CIK 1780312) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001780312-26-000006 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-03-02 | Revenue CY2025 $70,918K; ProfitLoss $(461,011)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F19 | Satellogic — SEC company facts (CIK 1874315) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001874315-26-000013 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-03-19 | Revenue CY2025 $17,707K; net loss $(4,783)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F20 | Sidus Space — SEC company facts (CIK 1879726) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001493152-26-014547 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-04-01 | Revenues CY2025 $3,384K; net loss $(29,474)K | 2026-09-14 |
| F21 | Momentus — SEC company facts (CIK 1781162) | SEC EDGAR XBRL API, company-facts; accession 0001628280-26-022291 (10-K FY2025) | 2026-03-31 | Revenue CY2025 $1,110K | 2026-09-14 |
| F22 | EchoStar Corporation Form 10-K, FY2025 | EchoStar Corporation via SEC EDGAR (CIK 1415404); accession 0001104659-26-021817. Accessed 2026-09-14 | 2026-03-02 | Supports the exclusion "revenue is majority pay television": segment revenue FY2025 Pay-TV $9,700,480K of total $15,004,989K (64.6%); Wireless $3,795,675K; Broadband and Satellite Services $1,456,052K. Audited. No EchoStar figure is printed in the issue | 2026-10-27 |
| F23 | Maxar Technologies Form 8-K, 2023-05-03 | Maxar Technologies Inc. via SEC EDGAR (CIK 1121142); accession 0001104659-23-055309. Accessed 2026-09-14 | 2023-05-03 | Supports the exclusion "private since 2023": merger with Advent-controlled Galileo Parent completed 2023-05-03; NYSE asked to suspend trading and delist the common stock; Form 15 deregistration stated as intended. Company filing | 2026-10-27 |
| F24 | SpaceX Form 10-Q, Q3 2026 | SpaceX via SEC EDGAR (CIK 1181412); accession 0001628280-26-066880. Accessed 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-22 | Segment results, three months to 30 Sep 2026: Connectivity revenue $5,248M, income from operations $2,367M; Space revenue $1,767M, loss from operations $(7)M; SI (formerly AI) revenue $7,560M, income from operations $431M. Total revenue $14,575M (Q3 2025 $5,576M), the three segments with no reconciling items; derived: SI is 51.9% of Q3 revenue. Connectivity nine months $12,796M (vs $8,159M). Q3 Connectivity increase: consumer +$1,135M, enterprise and government +$1,016M "primarily driven by additional aircraft activations". Starlink consumer subscribers 13.6M at 30 Sep 2026 (7.2M a year earlier); consumer ARPU $69 in Q3. Nameplate compute 1.7 GW at 30 Sep 2026 (0.6 GW a year earlier). PP&E at 30 Sep 2026: servers and networking equipment $43,206M, satellites $14,738M. EchoStar spectrum: licences in trust since 2026-05-22, payments to the trust through at least 2027-11-30. Derived: Q4 needed for $19,000M = $19,000M − $12,796M = $6,204M, +18.2% on Q3; sequential steps Q1→Q2 +31.7% ($3,257M→$4,291M, F3), Q2→Q3 +22.3%. Company filing | 2026-10-27 |
Non-US listed operators and the exchange rate
| # | Source | Publisher | Pub date | Supports | Archived |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SES — Full Year 2025 Results | SES S.A., press release | 2026-03-02 | Revenue FY2025 €2,627M as reported (€3,512M like-for-like); Adjusted EBITDA €1,196M; Intelsat consolidated from 2025-07-17 | 2026-10-27 |
| S2 | Eutelsat — Full Year 2025-26 Results | Eutelsat Communications, press release | 2026-08-07 | Revenues FY to 30 June 2026 €1,235.9M, −0.6% reported, +3.0% like-for-like; LEO revenues €297M (+69.5%, 25% of total); Adjusted EBITDA €632.4M | 2026-10-27 |
| S3 | Euro foreign exchange reference rates — US dollar | European Central Bank | 2026-09-11 | EUR/USD reference rate 1.1592 on 2026-09-11. Derived: SES €2,627M × 1.1592 = $3,045M ("$3.0B"); Eutelsat €1,235.9M × 1.1592 = $1,433M ("$1.4B") | 2026-10-27 |
The investable-slice sum (derived). US-listed set = F1 Space + Connectivity ($15,473M) + F6–F21 revenue lines = $23,782M ("$23.8B"); SpaceX $15,473M / $23,782M = 65%; ex-SpaceX $8,309M. Wide set = $23,782M + $3,045M + $1,433M = $28,260M ("$28.3B"); SpaceX share 55%. Against M4 $429B: 5.5% / 6.6%; against M1 $626.4B: 3.8% / 4.5%; against M2 $686B: 3.5% / 4.1%.
Starlink in India (What would change my mind)
| # | Source | Publisher | Pub date | Supports | Archived |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I1 | Starlink receives license to launch satellite internet service in India | All India Radio News (government broadcaster); announced by the Union Communications Minister. Accessed 2026-10-27 | 2025-07-31 | Starlink holds a licence to launch satellite internet service in India; the article describes a future rollout, not a launch | 2026-10-27 |
| I2 | Starlink India launch: readiness claim and pending clearances | Nation Path India (trade press, used only to confirm the event). Accessed 2026-10-27 | 2026-10-17 | Starlink said on 16 October it was ready to serve India; consumer service had not launched; the Ministry of Communications said on 8 October that security assessments for licensed satellite providers were under way | 2026-10-27 |
SpaceX pricing (W1 carry-over)
| # | Source | Publisher | Pub date | Supports | Archived |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C7 | SpaceX rideshare pricing API | SpaceX (live endpoint; W1 source C7, accessed 2026-09-06). On 2026-09-13 the endpoint returned HTTP 405 to both curl and the headless browser; the ladder is carried from W1's read | accessed 2026-09-06 | Rideshare list price ladder $5,500/kg (2023), $6,000, $6,500, $7,000 (2026), $7,500 (2027) | 2026-10-27 |
| C7b | SpaceX — Rideshare | SpaceX (client-side rendered; read with scripts/node/render.js, evidence text in the run's scratch directory) | accessed 2026-09-13 | Page reads "$350k for 50kg to SSO with additional mass at $7k/kg" — $7,000/kg list price, SpaceX primary | 2026-10-27 |
Archive gaps
scripts/archive_sources.py was run in chunks on 2026-09-13/14 (the Archive returned HTTP 500 and 429 intermittently) and again on 2026-10-27, after the three-sector section was cut to one sentence (Kevin, 27 Oct) and the sources that supported only that section were removed. A save refused on every attempt is recorded as a gap in the Archived column, not invented. C7b (spacex.com/rideshare) is client-side rendered; its rendered text is in the run's evidence.
One standard, applied
- Altimeter was named in the drafting brief as a fourth cross-sector investor. Its site names no portfolio companies and no primary confirmation was reached within budget, so it is not in the issue.
- Space Foundation's 2024 total ($613B, The Space Report 2025 Q2) was fetched but is not cited: the 2026 report (M2) supersedes it with a same-year figure, and its own 2024 commercial base was revised.
- Spire's FY2025 profit and BlackSky's FY2025 net result are in the API output but not cited: Spire's revenue fell 35% in the year and the profit's driver was not verified; BlackSky's net-income tag was not returned for CY2025.
- EchoStar, Maxar, MDA, Telesat, Astroscale are excluded from the investable sum and named as exclusions in the issue. EchoStar's FY2025 segment split (F22) and Maxar's going-private 8-K (F23) were fetched on 2026-09-14 to support the two exclusion clauses; no figure for any of the five is printed.
Unverified
Marked [UNVERIFIED] inline in both editions on 2026-09-14. All three are closed: none remains in either edition.
- A 2023 funding-round attribution (One economy, three sectors). Section cut on 2026-10-27.
- Regulators in Mexico, Brazil and Chile increasingly treat coverage obligations as a licence condition (Telecom). Clause cut on 2026-10-27; no source supported it.
- Tailings and water-use compliance in Chile, Peru and Argentina (Mining). Clause cut on 2026-10-27; no source supported it.
Conflict recorded, not resolved
| Conflict | Positions | Handling |
|---|---|---|
| Size of the 2025 space economy | SIA $429B (M4) vs Novaspace $626.4B (M1) vs Space Foundation $686B (M2) | All three printed. Stated as three definitions; the issue shows what each includes. Not averaged |
| Government space spending 2025 | Space Foundation ~$141B (M2) vs Novaspace $138B (M1) vs SIA's non-satellite bucket $125.7B (M5), which also contains commercial human spaceflight | All three printed; none added to any commercial line |
| When the EchoStar spectrum purchase "closed" | W1 (D2) said closing May 2026; the 10-Q (F3) records the FCC approval and the licence transfer into a trust in May 2026 and an acquisition closing assumed for 2027-11-30 | W2 states the two-step structure. W1 is not edited by this run; flagged for Kevin |
| Intuitive Machines FY2025 revenue | Revenues $210,059K vs RevenueFromContractWithCustomer $207,132K in the same 10-K (F14) | The Revenues total is used; $3M difference does not move any figure in the issue |