Sources

The line behind every figure in W3.

Every figure in this issue traces to a line here, with publisher, publication date where available, and the date I accessed it. All access dates are 2026-11-04. Derived figures (multiples, percent changes, months between dates) are arithmetic on the lines below, and the derivation is stated in the Supports column. Confidence: A primary source opened; B secondary source opened.

Where two sources disagree, both are listed and the disagreement is stated. Company figures are company claims and are labelled as such in the issue.

Transformers and demand

#SourcePublisherPub dateSupportsConf.Archived
T1Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: Large Power Transformers and HVDCUS Department of Energy2022-02-2482% of LPTs consumed in the US imported, 2019 (printed p. 21, citing Commerce 2020); six US LPT producers in 2020 (p. 21)A2026-10-11
T2Supply shortages and an inflexible market give rise to high power transformer lead timesWood Mackenzie2024-04-02Average lead time about 50 weeks in 2021, 120 weeks in 2024 (transformers broadly)A2026-11-04
T3Power transformers and distribution transformers will face supply deficits of 30% and 10% in 2025Wood Mackenzie2025-08-14Power transformer demand up 116% since 2019 (analyst estimate). A WoodMac opinion piece a day earlier gives a 6% distribution deficit against this release's 10%; not usedA2026-11-04
T4Transformers in 2026: shortage, scramble or self-inflicted crisisPOWER magazine2026-01-02Wood Mackenzie Q2 2025 survey: power transformers 128 weeks average. Secondary; the survey itself was not reachedB2026-11-04
T5PPI: Electric Power and Specialty Transformer Manufacturing, PCU335311335311BLS, via FREDupdated 2026-10-15Index 255.500 (Jan 2020) to 475.065 (Sep 2026): +85.9%, shown as 86%A2026-11-04
T7US transformer market faces severe supply constraints as lead times extend to four yearsESS News2026-05-12PwC: up to four years for high-capacity units; Wood Mackenzie demand 2019–2025, GSU +274%, substation +116%. (Its "about 80%" price rise is from unnamed experts; not used)B2026-11-04
T8Transformer troubles: manufacturing and policy constraints hit US transformer supplyWood Mackenzie2025-08-13Demand since 2019: power transformers +116%, GSUs +274% (primary for T7's figures)A2026-11-04
T9Electricity Distribution Transformers: Supply, Tariffs, and Policy Options, R48933Congressional Research Service2026-04-23BLS prices for power and distribution transformers up roughly 40% from 2020 to 2024, inflation-adjusted (series "Power and Distribution Transformers, Except Parts"; differs from T5); 25% to 30% of distribution transformers imported; distribution lead times down to 30 weeks by Q2 2025 (Wood Mackenzie); domestic cores get 95% of their steel from one supplierA2026-11-04
T6Siemens Energy large power transformer facility, CharlotteManufacturing Dive2024-02$149.8M plant, production targeted early 2026. No first-unit report foundB2026-11-04

Gas turbines

#SourcePublisherPub dateSupportsConf.Archived
G1GE Vernova Q3 2026 resultsGE Vernova (SEC Ex. 99)2026-10-28Gas Power backlog plus slot reservations 116 to 122 GWA2026-11-04
G2GE Vernova orders surge as turbine slots tighten through 2030Power Engineering2026-04-23CEO: about three years lead time on new heavy-duty ordersB2026-11-04
G3Siemens gas turbine backlog nears 70 GWUtility Dive2026-08-10CFO: lead times "three years or more"B2026-11-04
G4MHI Q1 FY2026 Q&AMitsubishi Heavy Industries2026-08-06Q1 orders scheduled for delivery 2028 to 2030A2026-08-30
G6High demand for gas turbines is pushing out deliveries to 2031, Mitsubishi Power saysBloomberg, via Energy Connects2026-10-27Mitsubishi Power Asia Pacific CEO: new orders deliver around 2031; 2028 and 2029 slots almost fully bookedB2026-11-04
G5GE Vernova announces more than $160 million investment in GreenvilleGE Vernova2025-01-29Gas turbines made in Greenville since 1968A2026-11-04

Grain-oriented electrical steel

#SourcePublisherPub dateSupportsConf.Archived
S1ATI Form 8-KATI (SEC)2016-10-31Bagdad, PA GOES finishing facility permanently closed (announced 25 Oct 2016)A2026-11-04
S2ATI FY2015 Form 10-KATI (SEC)2016-02GOES idling announced Dec 2015; Louisville OH listed among flat-rolled finishing sitesA2026-11-04
S3ATI FY2022 Form 10-K and FY2023 Form 10-KATI (SEC)2023-02 / 2024-02Louisville listed through FY2022, absent from FY2023A2026-11-04
S4The Effect of Imports of Transformers and Transformer Components on the National Security (redacted)Commerce, BIS2020-10-15 (posted 2021)AK Steel the sole US GOES producer; capacity redacted; cores $22M (2015) to $167M (2019); Canada and Mexico over 95% of core importsA2026-11-04
S5Cleveland-Cliffs applauds President Trump's ...Cleveland-Cliffs2020-11-02AK Steel capacity up to 250,000 net tons a year of electrical steel, Butler and Zanesville combined, GOES and NOES combinedA2026-11-04
S6DOE bulletin, Butler Works awardDOE EERE2026-10-08$75M federal award, $200M project, up to 25% more output. WPXI reported $170M; DOE's figure usedA2026-11-04
S7America makes the wrong steel for its transformer supply chainBreakthrough Institute2026-08-14GOES about 20% of a transformer's cost; GOES prices doubled 2020 to 2024; a Butler retrofit or a greenfield GOES mill costs $1–2B either way. Transformer core imports $126M (2018) to $524M (2025). The article says "over 400%"; 524/126 = 4.16×, shown as "about 4×". No trade codes citedA (for the claim)2026-11-04
S8Flux Steel Works secures Ohio plant to produce power transformer core steelFlux Steel Works (PR Newswire)2026-09-15Former ATI plant, 626,000 sq ft, secured July 2026; >260,000 tons/yr at full production; commercial production planned 2029; >150,000 tons reserved; 200+ jobs. Capex and financing not disclosedA2026-11-04
S9fluxsteelworks.comFlux Steel WorksaccessedAbout half of capacity in phase 1A2026-11-04

Presses and castings

#SourcePublisherPub dateSupportsConf.Archived
P1ASME landmark 89: Wyman-Gordon 50,000-ton hydraulic forging pressASME198350,000-ton began forging Oct 1955; 35,000-ton from Feb 1955; plant bought from the government 1982A2025-05-12
P2Wyman-Gordon GraftonWyman-Gordonaccessed50,000- and 35,000-ton presses listed. A listing, not an operating recordA2026-11-04
P3ASME landmark 71: Alcoa 50,000-ton hydraulic forging pressASME1981Built "between 1952 and 1955". Alcoa says 1955 (P4); the issue uses 1955A2026-11-04
P4Alcoa completes and restarts redesigned 50,000-ton pressAlcoa (now Howmet)2012-02-13$100M rebuild; restart Feb 2012; production began 1955A2026-11-04
P5Weber Metals and Otto Fuchs debut new forge pressWeber Metals (release via Defense Daily)2018-10-2360,000-ton press, Paramount CA, $180M (other reports say $170M); Weber is "a division of Otto Fuchs KG of Germany"A2026-11-04
P6GAO-22-104154, Navy Shipbuilding industrial baseGAO2022-07DoD reports FY2018 to FY2020 flagged "fragile market" risk; the definition; $5.5M in FY2018 to preserve casting capability; castings and forgings a DoD-wide priority from 2021A2026-10-19
P7Navy ship construction, repair hampered by lack of suppliers, skilled workersSeapower (Navy League)2022-01-13Matt Sermon, executive director, PEO Strategic Submarines: his list of "fragile market sectors" includes castings and forgings. The phrase is the reporter's paraphrase, not a direct quoteA2026-11-04

Cranes

#SourcePublisherPub dateSupportsConf.Archived
C1Joint Homeland Security and China Select Committee port security reportUS House (majority staff)2024-09ZPMC nearly 80% of STS cranes used at US ports; no US manufacturing alternativeA2026-11-04
C7CRS IF12666Congressional Research Service2026-08-26China makes over 70% of STS cranes globally. (The brief's "about 80% of the world market", from Maritime Executive, is a hedged secondary figure; not used)A2026-11-04
C8CBP CSMS #62411889US Customs and Border Protection2024-09-2625% Section 301 duty on Chinese STS cranes for entries from 2024-09-27A2026-11-04
C2Mitsui E&S news releaseMitsui E&S2024-04-11Paceco to reestablish final assembly of port cranes in California, the first since 1989A
C3Mitsui E&S news releaseMitsui E&S2025-09-18Two STS cranes for TTI, Long BeachA2025-12-06
C4Port of Long Beach orders ship-to-shore cranesMaritime Professional2025-09The TTI cranes are built in JapanB2026-11-04
C5Konecranes establishing network of partners to build full range of port cranes in the United StatesKonecranes2024-07-29Full range of port cranes including STS through US partnersA2026-11-04
C6PhilaPort Tioga Marine Terminal STS cranesPhiladelphia Inquirer2026-02-10Four potential bidders could not meet the spec, schedule or budget; BABA waiver soughtB2026-11-04

Model reference classes

Reference-class sources for the model (Big River Steel, POSCO, JFE, JSW–JFE, qualification time) are in issues/W3/research/step1.md, section B, with their confidence grades. The ones the issue cites by number:

#SourcePublisherPub dateSupportsConf.Archived
M1Electrical steel line coming to Big River Steel and U.S. Steel ribbon cutting, OsceolaAIST; U.S. Steel (repost)2021-06 / 2023-10-12Announced Jun 2021, ribbon cutting Oct 2023: about 28 months, "on time and on budget"B / A2026-11-04
M2POSCO completes construction of electrical steel sheet plant at GwangyangSteelOrbis2024-01-04Non-oriented (Hyper NO); construction from Apr 2022; first phase complete, 150,000 t/yrB2026-11-04
M3Japan's JFE Steel to triple electrical steel sheet capacity at KurashikiSteelOrbis2023-05-23Non-oriented (EV motors), second expansion; operations within the fiscal year ending Mar 2027B2026-11-04
M4JFE Steel release on the JSW JFE Electrical Steel expansionJFE Steel2025-08-04GOES; JV investment Feb 2024; Vijayanagar full production scheduled within 2027A2026-11-04

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Reckoning

Calibrated research on space, defense, energy and manufacturing.
Kevin Neuburger

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Reckoning is analysis, not investment advice, and nothing in it is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. I invest in the sectors it covers; my positions are declared at the top of every issue and on the disclosure page. Some positions are held through vehicles whose terms bar naming the company: those are disclosed by number, not by name, and where one sits in a company an issue covers, the issue makes no forecast on it and says so. Nothing here draws on information I hold under confidentiality: every figure and every forecast traces to the public sources listed with the issue.