Reckoning

Dated calls, graded in public.

New: W2, What the Space Economy Actually Is →

Open calls

  1. 20% Starlink's segment tops $19B in 2026 Resolves 2027-04-30 · logged 2026-10-29
  2. 40% OSC lends to a second launch company by Oct 31, 2027 Resolves 2027-10-31 · logged 2026-10-27
  3. 80% No new robotics or machinery tariff by Oct 31, 2027 Resolves 2027-10-31 · logged 2026-10-29
  4. 75% FCC opens part of 482 MHz to satellite-to-phone by end of 2027 Resolves 2027-12-31 · logged 2026-10-30
  5. 60% Golden Dome declared initially operational by end of 2028 Resolves 2028-12-31 · logged 2026-09-21

Record: 3 graded, average Brier 0.31. 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.25. The full register →

Charts →